#1Selected
Sabrina Ionescu
New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks
UNDER
3PM 2.5
Projection
1.77
Model
65.5%
Gap
-0.73
Price
-128
projection 1.77 vs line 2.50 / under probability 65.5% / gap -0.73 (0.50 sigma)
W
ULTOPS / WNBA
1 picks for 2026-08-13
FanDuel Live Mode: EXPERIMENTALAug 13, 12:16 PM ET
WNBA Prop Card
WNBA Correlation-Aware Player Prop Model V1 ranks the current slate by model probability, projection gap, book price, and portfolio risk. FanDuel-live mode is the primary card path, with unavailable props removed before model selection.
Selected
1
9 board rows
Avg prob.
65.5%
1 A
SGP risk
LOW
100.0% est. multiplier
Settlement
Pending
1 pending
Settlement Tracker
0 settled / 1 pending
Wins
0
Losses
0
Accuracy
Pending
#1 Sabrina Ionescu
UNDER 3PM 2.5
Actual n/aFanDuel
Today's Picks
Ranked one per player, highest model score first.
1 selected
Next Up
Strong rows held by portfolio or slate gates.
ACandidate
Sabrina Ionescu
New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks
UNDER
P+A 24.5
Projection
20.24
Model
67.4%
Gap
-4.26
Price
-112
CCandidate
Sabrina Ionescu
New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks
UNDER
PTS 18.5
Projection
15.43
Model
62.1%
Gap
-3.07
Price
-104
Board Explorer
1 of 9 rows shown by current filters
Sabrina Ionescu
SelectedNew York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks
Model lean
UNDER 3PM 2.5
Model
65.5% / 0.745
Gap
-0.73
Listed
UNDER 3PM -128
FanDuel
Single Side Price / Thin Market Count
Model Stack
Projection engine
Blends player per-minute form, EWMA, last-3/last-10 production, season baseline, position fallback, opponent allowance, home/away splits, and expected minutes.
Probability layer
Converts projection gap into an over/under probability with market-specific residuals and a recency-weighted empirical hit-rate blend.
Price edge
Normalizes supplied American odds to no-vig fair probability, then compares book price against model probability.
Portfolio gates
Limits exposure by player, team, game, market, combo market, and same-team counting overs, then applies live-mode availability gates and SGP exposure accounting.
Latest Selector Proof
Six-pick coverage
41/41
Archive-ML walk-forward covered every evaluated slate
Settled parlays
14/27
51.85% archive/cross-source six-pick parlay hit rate
Settled legs
175/226
77.43% archive selected-leg accuracy
FanDuel shadow
3/5
60.00% limited FanDuel availability replay; sample is too small to drive the selector
Portfolio Gates
Max 6 picks
Max 1 per player per slate
FanDuel-live mode is the primary six-pick path for the website card
Archive-ML proof does not transfer to single-book availability by default
Unavailable user-confirmed FanDuel props are removed before model selection
Soft SGP tax lowers priority for additional same-game legs in FanDuel-live mode
Max 6 per team in live mode
Max 6 per game in live mode
Max 4 per market
Max 4 combo markets
Max 1 same-team counting over
Requires target-date ESPN slate and current ESPN roster match
FanDuel rows require playable side odds and current source context
Live forced fill requires at least 52% model probability
Archive-ML rerank uses only prior archived candidate outcomes
Current archive proof: 41/41 covered, 14/27 settled six-pick parlays, 175/226 legs
Limited FanDuel replay: 3/5 settled six-pick parlays, 73.33% legs
Data Contract
game_dateplayerteamopponentmarketlineover_oddsunder_oddssportsbook_countprojected_minutesstarter_expectedinjury_notesource_picksource_projectionsource_url
WNBA V1 ranks sourced player props with historical boxscore evidence, current FanDuel-labeled prices, source projection alignment, and portfolio gates. Archive proof and live FanDuel execution are separated; live use still requires player availability and book availability confirmation.