#1Selected
Veronica Burton
Golden State Valkyries vs New York Liberty
UNDER
AST 5.5
Projection
3.71
Model
67.0%
Gap
-1.79
Price
-110
projection 3.71 vs line 5.50 / under probability 67.0% / gap -1.79 (0.59 sigma)
W
ULTOPS / WNBA
6 picks for 2026-06-28
Current card liveJun 28, 3:53 PM ET
WNBA Prop Card
WNBA Correlation-Aware Player Prop Model V1 ranks the current slate by model probability, projection gap, book price, and portfolio risk.
Selected
6
160 board rows
Avg prob.
66.0%
5 A / 1 B
Avg score
0.753
Selected card
Settlement
Pending
6 pending
Settlement Tracker
0 settled / 6 pending
Wins
0
Losses
0
Accuracy
Pending
#1 Veronica Burton
UNDER AST 5.5
Actual n/aPublic board
#2 Kayla McBride
OVER 3PM 1.5
Actual n/abet365
#3 Natasha Howard
OVER REB 6.5
Actual n/abet365
#4 Nia Coffey
OVER AST 1.5
Actual n/abet365
#5 Kamilla Cardoso
OVER PTS 12.5
Actual n/aPublic board
#6 Janelle Salaun
OVER 3PM 1.5
Actual n/acaesars
Today's Picks
Ranked one per player, highest model score first.
6 selected
#2Selected
Kayla McBride
Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings
OVER
3PM 1.5
Projection
2.35
Model
64.8%
Gap
+0.85
Price
-160
projection 2.35 vs line 1.50 / over probability 64.8% / gap +0.85 (0.53 sigma)
Same Game Concentrationbet365
#3Selected
Natasha Howard
Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings
OVER
REB 6.5
Projection
8.27
Model
64.7%
Gap
+1.77
Price
-150
projection 8.27 vs line 6.50 / over probability 64.7% / gap +1.77 (0.52 sigma)
Same Game Concentrationbet365
#4Selected
Nia Coffey
Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings
OVER
AST 1.5
Projection
2.76
Model
69.0%
Gap
+1.26
Price
-250
projection 2.76 vs line 1.50 / over probability 69.0% / gap +1.26 (0.55 sigma)
Same Game Concentrationbet365
#5Selected
Kamilla Cardoso
Chicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces
OVER
PTS 12.5
Projection
16.49
Model
64.8%
Gap
+3.99
Price
-106
projection 16.49 vs line 12.50 / over probability 64.8% / gap +3.99 (0.58 sigma)
#6Selected
Janelle Salaun
Golden State Valkyries vs New York Liberty
OVER
3PM 1.5
Projection
2.01
Model
65.5%
Gap
+0.51
Price
-157
projection 2.01 vs line 1.50 / over probability 65.5% / gap +0.51 (0.37 sigma)
Volatile Minutescaesars
Next Up
Strong rows held by portfolio or slate gates.
BCandidate
Kamilla Cardoso
Chicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces
OVER
P+A 14.5
Projection
18.14
Model
64.2%
Gap
+3.64
Price
-125
Combo Market Correlationbet365
BCandidate
Veronica Burton
Golden State Valkyries vs New York Liberty
UNDER
P+A 17.5
Projection
12.62
Model
65.2%
Gap
-4.88
Price
-114
CCandidate
Jewell Loyd
Las Vegas Aces vs Chicago Sky
OVER
3PM 1.5
Projection
2.01
Model
62.5%
Gap
+0.51
Price
-144
Board Explorer
6 of 160 rows shown by current filters
Veronica Burton
SelectedGolden State Valkyries vs New York Liberty
Model lean
UNDER AST 5.5
Model
67.0% / 0.771
Gap
-1.79
Listed
UNDER AST -110
Public board
Single Side Price / Thin Market Count
Kayla McBride
SelectedMinnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings
Model lean
OVER 3PM 1.5
Model
64.8% / 0.764
Gap
+0.85
Listed
OVER 3PM -160
bet365
Same Game Concentration
Natasha Howard
SelectedMinnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings
Model lean
OVER REB 6.5
Model
64.7% / 0.762
Gap
+1.77
Listed
OVER REB -150
bet365
Same Game Concentration
Nia Coffey
SelectedMinnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings
Model lean
OVER AST 1.5
Model
69.0% / 0.752
Gap
+1.26
Listed
OVER AST -250
bet365
Same Game Concentration
Kamilla Cardoso
SelectedChicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces
Model lean
OVER PTS 12.5
Model
64.8% / 0.745
Gap
+3.99
Listed
OVER PTS -106
Public board
Single Side Price / Thin Market Count
Janelle Salaun
SelectedGolden State Valkyries vs New York Liberty
Model lean
OVER 3PM 1.5
Model
65.5% / 0.720
Gap
+0.51
Listed
OVER 3PM -157
caesars
Volatile Minutes
Model Stack
Projection engine
Blends player per-minute form, EWMA, last-3/last-10 production, season baseline, position fallback, opponent allowance, home/away splits, and expected minutes.
Probability layer
Converts projection gap into an over/under probability with market-specific residuals and a recency-weighted empirical hit-rate blend.
Price edge
Normalizes supplied American odds to no-vig fair probability, then compares book price against model probability.
Portfolio gates
Limits exposure by player, team, game, market, combo market, and same-team counting overs, then uses controlled expanded-fill gates to reach the target only when enough ESPN-roster-valid players clear the model.
Portfolio Gates
Max 6 picks
Max 1 per player per slate
Max 6 per team in expanded mode
Max 6 per game in expanded mode
Max 4 per market
Max 4 combo markets
Max 1 same-team counting over
Requires target-date ESPN slate and current ESPN roster match
Expanded fill requires probability, edge, and clean team context
Data Contract
game_dateplayerteamopponentmarketlineover_oddsunder_oddssportsbook_countprojected_minutesstarter_expectedinjury_notesource_picksource_projectionsource_url
WNBA V1 ranks sourced player props with historical boxscore evidence, best available over/under prices, source projection alignment, and portfolio gates. It is not a guarantee, and live use still requires player availability confirmation.