Rank 1 / Tier S
Natasha Howard
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
UNDER
PTS 12.5
Projection
8.25
Model Prob.
71.8%
Score
0.842
Book Price
-115
FanDuel projection 9.8 on Points; model gap -4.25.
W
ULTOPS / WNBA Snapshot
Player prop model section
Current best-odds WNBA card published
WNBA Player Prop Model
WNBA Correlation-Aware Player Prop Model V1 is now part of the site repo. It scores supplied WNBA prop boards with projection gap, probability, price edge, risk flags, and correlation-aware selection rules.
PTSREBAST3PMPRAPAPRRA
Model assets
wnba/
Model version2026-05-08-best-odds-source-gated-v3
Raw log file11,926 rows
Default range2024-05-14 to 2025-09-11
Regular logs
9,969
Default scoring sample
Player pool
218
Resolved WNBA players
Games
530
Regular-season games
Markets
8
Core and combo props
Current Model Card
Slate 2026-05-12; generated 5/12/2026, 4:55:18 PM ET from public sourced prop rows. SportsGrid public WNBA game pages showing FanDuel player props; selected rows require FanDuel source and playable side odds.
Selected
3
11 sourced rows
Avg prob.
73.1%
Selected props
Avg score
0.835
Model rank
Price cov.
90.9%
Pick-side prices
Rank 2 / Tier S
Jonquel Jones
New York Liberty vs Portland Fire
UNDER
PR 25.5
Projection
17.86
Model Prob.
78.2%
Score
0.841
Book Price
-125
FanDuel projection 17.2 on Pts + Reb; model gap -7.64.
Rank 3 / Tier S
Courtney Williams
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
UNDER
THREES 1.5
Projection
0.71
Model Prob.
69.4%
Score
0.823
Book Price
-174
FanDuel projection 0.4 on 3 Point FG Made; model gap -0.79.
Full FanDuel Slate Board
Every FanDuel-listed WNBA prop the model scored for this slate, sorted by final model score.
11 props
Natasha Howard
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
Model lean
UNDER PTS 12.5
FanDuel listed
UNDER Points 12.5 -115
Model
71.8% / 0.842
Top card
Jonquel Jones
New York Liberty vs Portland Fire
Model lean
UNDER PR 25.5
FanDuel listed
UNDER Pts + Reb 25.5 -125
Model
78.2% / 0.841
Top card
Jonquel Jones
New York Liberty vs Portland Fire
Model lean
UNDER PTS 16.5
FanDuel listed
UNDER Points 16.5 -122
Model
77.5% / 0.841
not current source snapshot
Jonquel Jones
New York Liberty vs Portland Fire
Model lean
UNDER PTS 15.5
FanDuel listed
UNDER Points 15.5 -110
Model
74.8% / 0.837
max per player
Natasha Howard
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
Model lean
UNDER PR 19.5
FanDuel listed
UNDER Pts + Reb 19.5 -118
Model
72.5% / 0.833
max per player
Courtney Williams
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
Model lean
UNDER THREES 1.5
FanDuel listed
UNDER 3 Point FG Made 1.5 -174
Model
69.4% / 0.823
Top card
Odyssey Sims
Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream
Model lean
OVER PTS 9.5
FanDuel listed
OVER Points 9.5 -122
Model
63.8% / 0.645
not current source snapshot
Jonquel Jones
New York Liberty vs Portland Fire
Model lean
UNDER THREES 1.5
FanDuel listed
UNDER 3 Point FG Made 1.5 +104
Model
63.3% / 0.603
max per player
Odyssey Sims
Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream
Model lean
OVER PTS 10.5
FanDuel listed
OVER Points 10.5 +102
Model
59.8% / 0.553
below consensus probability
Allisha Gray
Atlanta Dream vs Dallas Wings
Model lean
OVER REB 4.5
FanDuel listed
OVER Rebounds 4.5 -136
Model
56.4% / 0.294
below consensus probability
Allisha Gray
Atlanta Dream vs Dallas Wings
Model lean
UNDER PR 22.5
FanDuel listed
OVER Pts + Reb 22.5 -118
Model
59.7% / 0.082
source pick disagreement
Some rows are missing both over_odds and under_odds, so those rows are ranked without true price edge.
Some sourced rows have only the pick-side book price, so price edge is approximate rather than full no-vig.
Verified accuracy: pending. Settled 0 of 3 current-card picks; 3 pending final ESPN boxscores.
Model Stack
Projection engine
Blends player per-minute form, EWMA, last-3/last-10 production, season baseline, position fallback, opponent allowance, home/away splits, and expected minutes.
Probability layer
Converts projection gap into an over/under probability with market-specific residuals and a recency-weighted empirical hit-rate blend.
Price edge
Normalizes supplied American odds to no-vig fair probability, then compares book price against model probability.
Portfolio gates
Limits exposure by player, team, game, market, combo market, and same-team counting overs before selecting the final card.
Season Windows
2024: May 14 to September 19
2025: May 16 to September 11
2026: May 8 to September 24
Board Contract
game_dateplayerteamopponentmarketlineover_oddsunder_oddssportsbook_countprojected_minutesstarter_expectedinjury_notesource_picksource_projectionsource_url
WNBA V1 ranks sourced player props with historical boxscore evidence, best available over/under prices, source projection alignment, and portfolio gates. It is not a guarantee, and live use still requires player availability confirmation.